Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.076367 0.088191 0.101647 0.118175 0.138047 0.161313 0.190824
2025-11-02 0.057432 0.071193 0.088268 0.111285 0.141919 0.181896 0.239025
2025-11-09 0.043797 0.057514 0.075793 0.102458 0.141257 0.197117 0.286431
2025-11-16 0.036116 0.050029 0.069858 0.101068 0.150675 0.229648 0.371924
2025-11-23 0.030150 0.043810 0.064498 0.099442 0.159867 0.266068 0.482281
2025-11-30 0.025977 0.039476 0.061134 0.100314 0.173998 0.317382 0.650179
2025-12-07 0.022534 0.035665 0.057874 0.100718 0.188068 0.376109 0.876056
2025-12-14 0.019223 0.031491 0.053203 0.097507 0.194605 0.424050 1.119349
2025-12-21 0.015838 0.026635 0.046421 0.088603 0.186526 0.436234 1.281923
2025-12-28 0.014081 0.024420 0.044162 0.088526 0.199034 0.509183 1.724373
2026-01-04 0.012826 0.022936 0.043052 0.090752 0.218644 0.616586 2.455162
2026-01-11 0.011627 0.021366 0.041476 0.091559 0.235395 0.729714 3.429733
2026-01-18 0.010532 0.019872 0.039869 0.092156 0.253152 0.867063 4.902080
2026-01-25 0.009400 0.018130 0.037399 0.089912 0.261695 0.980641 6.611826
2026-02-01 0.008288 0.016273 0.034338 0.085291 0.260665 1.056062 8.363479
2026-02-08 0.007628 0.015311 0.033238 0.086023 0.279934 1.257645 12.483216
2026-02-15 0.007022 0.014381 0.032048 0.086207 0.297916 1.482721 18.698690
2026-02-22 0.006569 0.013740 0.031476 0.088230 0.325552 1.818699 30.699434
2026-03-01 0.006140 0.013093 0.030770 0.089656 0.352276 2.207775 51.112201
2026-03-08 0.005633 0.012191 0.029217 0.087727 0.362278 2.494205 76.424565
2026-03-15 0.005001 0.010904 0.026401 0.080518 0.341322 2.471819 88.886237
2026-03-22 0.004692 0.010391 0.025695 0.080978 0.362927 2.934694 153.475802
2026-03-29 0.004472 0.010077 0.025511 0.083428 0.398632 3.676663 317.169778